Dedicated to the living memory of the ever-wise Dr. Al Bartlett, physics professor University of Colorado Boulder.
When we don’t fully comprehend the nature of a given situation, our attempts at solving them fall short. I am coining the definition of a ‘sour solution’ as one that never had a chance to work because it wasn’t based on the principles of physics. ‘Rusty remedies,’ on the other hand, have more potential, but are less viable in an overpopulated world which keeps on growing. I was fortunate to have met the brilliant and bold physics professor, Dr. Al Bartlett and I write this to honor his legacy.
One recommendation for dealing with stress is often to get outdoors and go for a walk in the woods. A frequently suggested remedy for better health is often to drink more water. But in a world where we are a servant to growth, the quality and availability of our outdoor experiences as well as the quality and quantity of our water supply are just rusty remedies. It is like offering a medicine for a disease which has stopped being manufactured.
How do people crowded into high-rises find access to woods where they can go for a walk? In our current situation where climate change threatens consistent rainfalls, where do we find adequate water to increase everyone’s intake? With deregulation as the current trajectory of our political world, how do we ensure that that water will be safe to drink? When do we start paying attention to the physics of the dramatic effect our overpopulated world has on our desire for better health? The desire to make life better for more and more people on a finite, resource-depleted planet is a rusty remedy.
Math is exactly what the late great physics professor Al Bartlett tried to warn us about. From a laundry list of things he could have chosen, including our propensity for war, he said that the greatest human failing was our inability to comprehend the exponential function. What he meant was that we as a society, and a world, operate without acknowledging that as human population grows it does so at an accelerating rate. We act as if we grow at a linear rate where the increase is constant. But we grow exponentially. That is how we have added billions to our planet in such a short amount of time, undermining our attempts to find real solutions for the problems overpopulation creates.
Bartlett also commented on the sour solutions of smart growth verses dumb growth. “Smart growth, or growth that is planned in a certain way, destroys the environment as much as dumb growth but does it with taste,” he said in one of his many popular lectures. He used the Titanic as an example because whether you were in a state room or in steerage, you both ended up at the bottom of the ocean.
Currently there is talk about attracting only the highly educated to our borders. But smart people also use resources, arguably more than those who would be willing to live with their family members for a while, therefore requiring less housing. Smart migrants drink our water, smart migrants crowd our cities, smart migrants encourage the expansion of infrastructure. This story has to play out on the gameboard of growth and limited resources, otherwise we are just moving chess pieces around, playing political games, weaponizing race as a tool and no one wins.
Our perceptions of where we are now with a world losing so much of its wildness and the creatures that live there, must change. We must acknowledge the extraordinary unsustainable pressure of what welcoming more people to this world (and to our country where we can control it) is doing to the very things we need to survive.
It’s been said many times that overpopulation is responsible for everything from road rage to other dysfunctional behaviors, but it is also responsible for keeping us away from any real solutions to our problems. When each of us already uses on average about 82 gallons of water each day, we must get our calculators or Google how much that is multiplied by how many people are in the US. In a country of 350+ million Americans, that equals a demand of 28,780,000,000 gallons of fresh water a day from our ailing aquifers and rivers. When we allow our country to keep growing its population in an already compromised world, we are inviting the kind of disaster which technology cannot solve.We are so disconnected from our ecological parameters that some even suggest moving people to desert areas where there is no water. Others suggest building up, not out, so that more people are added to specific water sources and dump more cars onto our already crowded streets creating more traffic jams. Sour solutions abound.
We need to take a hard look in the exponential mirror. Bartlett was right. This is our greatest failing. It surpasses even the atrocities of war and authoritarian governance, for it operates with an even deeper, often silent ruthlessness.
By ignoring the exponential function and operating as if resources were unlimited, we have allowed the global population to expand to over 8 billion while the US population now sits precariously at over 350,000,000. What is even more alarming is that we have grown so much during a century when we fought so many bloody wars. In the 20th century the wars took a toll of 231 million people globally. Yet we still managed to grow by the billions. The global population was only 1.6 billion in 1900 and now is still growing at 8.1 billion. Similarly, the US was just over 76 million in 1900 and now is at 350 million according to the Congressional budget office. For reference, when I graduated high school the US population was just over 209 million. US resources of water, open space, energy and all that is needed to support modern human life cannot keep pace with the addition of 141 million people in just over 50 years.
We can and should continue to fund global family planning efforts but at the end of the day it has been generally underfunded, culturally unwelcomed and a weak tool in the long run. The only way to stop growth is to address it locally within our local watersheds and with rules that are enforceable by one political entity. True, this overall won't reduce the total number of people in the world, but that is not where this story unfolds, it unfolds within the political reach of each country. Every country must understand that the most humane thing to do for its own people is to grasp the ramifications of the exponential function. In the US, we can do it legally and fairly and for the right reasons. Proposals currently on the doorsteps of our legislators could do just that for most developed nations are growing by immigration, not by birthrates. Instead of demonizing anything that controls mass immigration as unfair, we need to reframe that story into one of sustainability and fairness to current citizens and their quality of life. Two bills before Congress now include the following:
H.R. 251 would crack down on illegal hiring by mandating E-Verify, the free online system that verifies the work authorization of new hires. Nearly a billion adults worldwide want to move to the United States. Many of them will try illegally as long as they think the U.S. turns a blind eye to illegal hiring.
H.R. 1241 would end the visa lottery, a program that grants over 50,000 green cards every year by a random, computerized lottery.
These two modest reforms are popular and ere among the recommendations of the last bipartisan U.S. commission on immigration reform. Passing them alone would not achieve sustainable immigration levels, but they would give us a good start. Our dialogue about growth must include sensible legislation so that we may be on a path to real solutions.
As Bartlett would have asked in his sarcastic way, “Can you think of a resource we need as top predators need, that has kept up with our exponential rise in numbers?” Well, we have seen an exponential rise in more gadgets headed for our landfills, but we can live without those, we just haven’t figured out a way to live without water, food or shelter or find a way to have them grow exponentially along with us.
Every solution offered to remedy the ailing problems of mankind takes resources and if we continue to ignore the problem of exponential growth, they will all sour like curdled milk left on the doorstep of an ever-warming world.